Black workers’ unemployment is more sensitive to overall conditions: Regression coefficient showing change in Black and white labor market indicators given a 1-percentage-point increase in the output gap

Outcome Regression coefficient
White -0.643
Black -1.571
Nonwhite -1.539
Black–white  -0.703
Nonwhite–white -0.896
Nonwhite–white (post-1971) -0.826
White 0.18
Black 1.2

Note: Regression coefficients stemming from a regression (with Newey-West standard errors) of three-year centered average of labor market indicators on the three-year centered average of the output gap and a time trend.

Source: Author’s analysis of Current Population Survey data from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS-CPS 2021) and output data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO 2021).

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