The Raise the Wage Act would significantly reduce poverty, especially for children: Range of estimates of the number of children and nonelderly adults who would no longer be in poverty in 2025 if the Raise the Wage Act of 2021 is passed

Scenario Children Adults Total
Low estimate 0.63417781 1.132334 0
High estimate 1.323126 2.3624609 0

Notes: Using already scheduled state and local minimum wage increases, we estimate the employment-weighted minimum wage would be $11.53 in 2025 without the Raise the Wage Act, or $15.19 with the Raise the Wage Act, a log difference of 0.276. We apply that difference to the range of long-run poverty rate elasticities in Table 7 of Dube (2019b), or -0.220 to -0.459, and to the nonelderly poverty rates in Table B-1 of Census (2020).

Source: Authors’ calculations from Census (2020), Dube (2019b), and projected state, local, and federal minimum wages in 2025. 

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